As detailed in Jeff Master’s Wunderblog post, African tropical wave 99L shows strong potential for developing into this year’s first tropical storm in the Atlantic.  Most models place wave 99L as a tropical depression within 4 days.

Read Dr. Master’s full blog entry.  Satellite images taken by NASA on August 9th.

We are now entering the middle of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season and its worth evaluating the prospects for the remainder of this year.  To date, there have been exactly zero named storms in the Atlantic.  That is fairly unusual.  In fact, as Jeff Masters points out in his Wunder Blog, “It has been 17 years since we went this long without a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic”.  In 1992, the first storm didn’t materialize until August 16th.  With no storms on the horizon, this year could easily extend beyond August 16th.  The question then is this:  does the beginning foreshadow the end?  If so, its going to be a quiet year for cat adjusters.  But lets take a look at the most recent projections.

On August 4th, Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University issued an update to their seasonal hurricane forecast.  Interestingly, despite the utter lack of current Atlantic tropical storm activity, Drs. Klotzbach and Gray are still calling for a near average hurricane season with 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.  Additionally, they call for a near-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. with a 27% chance of a big one hitting the east coast (31% average) and a 26% chance of one hitting the gulf coast (30% average).

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Risk Inc. of Britain issued an August 4th update to their previous June and July 2009 predictions that actually raises by 20% their forecast of Atlantic tropical storm activity.   Now, TSR is predicting a still near-average season, with 12.6 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, 2.8 intense hurricanes.  They forecast 3.8 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.6 of being categorized as hurricanes.

All this, of course, if extremely speculative but it is worth tucking away somewhere as we wait with anticipation for what the next few months will bring.

Industry leading certification for a competitive edge…

Haag Engineering’s Certified Roof Inspector Program is coming August 11th to Dallas, Tx!  This 3 day intensive seminar and certification exam earns graduates a distinguished place among the elite roof specialists in the industry.  A huge opportunity for career advancement and a great way to enhance your adjusting credentials.

Learn More |  Register

HCRI Frequently Asked Questions

Q. What does HCRI stand for?

A. Haag Certified Roof Inspector

Q. Where will the HCRI program be held?

A. Sessions held in Dallas will be held in the Parish Auditorium at Haag’s office, located at 4949 Royal Lane, Irving, TX 75063. Haag has negotiated a special $109 rate for HCRI registrants at the Wyndham DFW North. A free shuttle from the hotel to Haag’s office (approximately 1 mile) will be provided in the morning and at the completion of the day.

Q. Can I receive CE credit for taking this course?

A. Haag has been approved to offer 20 hours of credit for insurance adjusters in Texas, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina and Wyoming. The Roofing Consultants Institute (RCI) is also offering 18 hours of CE credit for taking this course. Please have your license information available upon registration.

Q. How strict is the 1 year/100 roof inspection experience prerequisite?

A. Haag will strictly enforce their prerequisites.  The HCRI program is not intended to train new roof inspectors.  It is expected that you will bring industry and inspection knowledge and experience, which will enhance your experience.  HCRI curriculum and tests are written and intended for the intermediate to expert roof inspector.  During registration Haag will ask you for the total number of roofs you have inspected (approx) and the name of your principle employer during your last year of roof inspection experience. Haag reserves the right to deny certification to a paying registrant if their inspection or industry knowledge or skills are not to the level of someone with this minimum required experience.  No certification will be granted nor refunds given (for the class or any associated expenses you may incur) to anyone who misrepresents their experience level. Haag reserves the right to check references of any registrant in order to verify experience and eligibility.

Q. What is the cost of the HCRI program?

A. The cost for the 2009 HCRI program is $825.

Q. Do you offer group discounts?

A. Haag offers 1 complimentary registration with one order of 4 paid registrations. In order to be eligible for this discount, all registrants must register at the same time, under the same registration.

Q. Are my meals and hotel included in the HCRI price?

A. The HCRI fee only covers the class and materials.  Haag will negotiate the best sleeping room rate possible with the hotel they choose, but all hotel and travel expenses are your own.  If you would like to purchase lunch each of the class days you can do so for $20 each day.  These lunches are optional and can be purchased at the time of registration.

Q. How strict is your cancellation policy? What if I get called away for work when I am supposed to be in class?

A. Haag’s cancellation policy is as follows:  Date of registration to 31 days from start of class – $25 cancellation fee; 30-10 days from start of class – 50% of class fee; 9-0 days from start of class – no refund.  Haag must enforce their cancellation policy as stated, however they want to work with you if you are called away at the last minute.  You will be allowed to transfer to a different session ONE time without penalty.  If you cannot make your second session there will be an additional $100 transfer fee to move to another session each time you reschedule.  You can also transfer your registration to anyone of your choosing at no additional cost to you (assuming they meet the prerequisites of the program).   The cancellation penalty from your original registration will apply to your registration regardless when you take the class.

Q. Will I be able to use my status as a Haag Certified Roof Inspector in marketing my business or myself to potential employers?

A. YES! Haag asks that you keep your certification current annually to do this from year to year.  Anyone who is curious about your certification will be able to go to www.certifiedroofinspector.com and view Haag’s database of HCRIs and verify your active and good standing status.

California Earthquake Accreditation for Adjusters in Orlando, FL

Full-day seminar (Registration) co-taught by Haag Engineering and Eberl’s Claims Service is accredited by the California Earthquake Authority (CEA) for adjuster certification.  Graduates of this course obtain the necessary certification required to adjust earthquake losses in California.

Earthquake Damage to Residential Properties can result in Severe Loss

The course is approved for 7 Hours Adjuster CE in TX, FL, OK, NC, WY, & GA.

Course Overview: Haag provides instruction on earthquake characteristics, engineering principles, damage evaluation, and applies those principles to several detailed case studies (i.e. Northridge 1994). Eberl’s discusses the three California Earthquake Authority policies, techniques for scoping earthquake loss, deductibles, fair claims settlement laws, earthquake mediation, and disaster relief assistance. Course meets statute requirements for adjuster accreditation for California Earthquake Authority earthquake claim work.

Course Logistics:

Where: Orlando, FL

When: July 28th, 8am-5pm

Cost: $150

Registration may be completed online HERE.

Course Benefits: Strengthen your professional credibility and become immediately deployable in the event of an earthquake.  Prognosticators forecast an earthquake of catastrophic proportions as a strong likelihood within the next decade.  Begin your preparation now to ensure rapid and successful deployment when the big one hits.

Sinkhole Seminar in Orlando, Florida

Sinkholes can have devastating effects on property.

The 1/2 day seminar entitled Sinkholes in Florida: Engineering & Legal Issues - Registration – will run from 1pm to 5pm on July 29th in Orlando.  This course is taught by Haag Engineering in cooperation with Andy Rock, P.A. of the Rock Law Group and is accredited for 4 Hours CE in both Florida and Texas for adjusters.  Haag engineer Justin Kestner will examine the geology behind sinkholes, the engineering involved with sinkhole evaluations, and Mr. Rock will present on the all-important legal aspects.  Covers potential signs of sinkhole loss, factors other than sinkholes that cause damage often associated with sinkholes, and sinkhole remediation.  Also covered will be effective strategies for dealing with sinkhole litigation, including contractual suits, appraisals, neutral evaluations, and bad faith.

Course Details:

Where: Orlando, FL

When: July 29th, 1pm-4pm

Cost: $175

Registration may be completed online HERE.

Why Sinkholes are Important

Sinkholes occur through the dissolving of underlying layers of limestone by slightly acidic water.  When sediment layers form irregular pockets that are “burst” by dissolution and decay, the result is the potentially destructive phenomenon known as a sinkhole.  Sinkholes, common to  southwest Florida, can cause catastrophic property damage (see illustration) fraught with layers of legalities.  Understanding the processeses involved and the legal terrain will greatly assist adjusters in professionally handling sinkhole claims.  A great resume enhancement and fascinating subject!

The Making of a Sinkhole (credit to Southwest Florida Management District)

We’re very pleased to announce AdjusterPro’s new strategic alliance with Haag Engineering.  We’ll be offering information, scheduling, and enrollment for Haag’s best adjuster seminars through 2009 including: California Earthquake certification, Sudden Damage Vs. Maintenance Seminars, Sinkholes in Florida Seminars, and the prestigious Haag Certified Roof Inspector Certification.   Here is what you can expect:

About Haag

Haag Engineering, founded in 1924, is recognized as the country’s leader in residential and commercial property damage assessment.  Their engineers are sought nationwide by insurance companies and adjusting firms to provide expert damage evaluation and consultation.  Haag’s engineers also conduct seminars throughout the year to empower contractors, inspectors, and claims adjusters to do their job better through more accurate scoping and a better understanding of the external and internal forces that compromise building materials.

Haag Seminars

Haag’s seminars are truly a pleasure to attend.  Instructors are both experts in their field and highly adept at communicating in the classroom.  Subject matter is extremely pertinent to the daily tasks confronting adjusters – proper identification and understanding of building materials and how they can come to fail.

The following courses, reviewed in more detail throughout this week, are now available for immediate enrollment:

Haag Certified Roof Inspector Program

3 Day Certification instantly gives serious credibility to your professional profile as an adjuster.

Next Course: August 11th-13th, Dallas, Texas

CEUs: 20 (TX, FL, OK, MS, NC, GA, WY)

More Info |  Enroll

California Earthquake Adjuster Accreditation

1 Day Certification accredited by the California Earthquake Authority awards graduates with the certification required to handle quake claims in California.

Next Course: July 28th, Orlando, Florida

CEUs: 7 (TX, FL, OK, MS, NC, GA, WY)

More Info |  Enroll

Sudden Damage vs. Maintenance Issues in Buildings

1/2 Day seminar assists students in distinguishing damage caused by sudden distresses (settlement, strong wind, etc) from the natural deteroriation of time.

Next Course: July 29th, Orlando, Florida

CEUs: 4 (TX, FL, OK, MS, NC, GA, WY)

More Info |  Enroll

Sinkholes in Florida: Engineering & Legal Issues

1/2 Day seminar examines the geology behind sinkoles, engineering involved with sinkhole evaluations, and the all-important legal aspects.

Next Course: July 29th, Orlando, Florida

CEUs: 4 (TX, FL, OK, MS, NC, GA, WY)

More Info |  Enroll

For your reference as me move forward into Hurricane season, lets review the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, taken from NOAA’s website:

Category One Hurricane:

Sustained winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt or 119-153 km/hr). Damaging winds are expected. Some damage to building structures could occur, primarily to unanchored mobile homes (mainly pre-1994 construction). Some damage is likely to poorly constructed signs. Loose outdoor items will become projectiles, causing additional damage. Persons struck by windborne debris risk injury and possible death. Numerous large branches of healthy trees will snap. Some trees will be uprooted, especially where the ground is saturated. Many areas will experience power outages with some downed power poles. Hurricane Cindy (pdf) (2005, 75 mph winds at landfall in Louisiana) and Hurricane Gaston (2004, 75 mph winds at landfall in South Carolina) are examples of Category One hurricanes at landfall.

Category Two Hurricane:

Sustained winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr). Very strong winds will produce widespread damage. Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings will occur. Considerable damage to mobile homes (mainly pre-1994 construction) and poorly constructed signs is likely. A number of glass windows in high rise buildings will be dislodged and become airborne. Loose outdoor items will become projectiles, causing additional damage. Persons struck by windborne debris risk injury and possible death.. Numerous large branches will break. Many trees will be uprooted or snapped. Extensive damage to power lines and poles will likely result in widespread power outages that could last a few to several days. Hurricane Erin (1995, 100 mph at landfall in northwest Florida) and Hurricane Isabel (2003, 105 mph at landfall in North Carolina) are examples of Category Two hurricanes at landfall.

Category Three Hurricane:

Sustained winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr). Dangerous winds will cause extensive damage. Some structural damage to houses and buildings will occur with a minor amount of wall failures. Mobile homes (mainly pre-1994 construction) and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Many windows in high rise buildings will be dislodged and become airborne. Persons struck by windborne debris risk injury and possible death. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks. Hurricane Rita (pdf) (2005, 115 mph landfall in east Texas/Louisiana) and Hurricane Jeanne (2004, 120 mph landfall in southeast Florida) are examples of Category Three hurricanes at landfall.

Category Four Hurricane:

Sustained winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Extremely dangerous winds causing devastating damage are expected. Some wall failures with some complete roof structure failures on houses will occur. All signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes (primarily pre-1994 construction). Extensive damage to doors and windows is likely. Numerous windows in high rise buildings will be dislodged and become airborne. Windborne debris will cause extensive damage and persons struck by the wind-blown debris will be injured or killed. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted. Fallen trees could cut off residential areas for days to weeks. Electricity will be unavailable for weeks after the hurricane passes. Hurricane Charley (2004, 145 mph at landfall in southwest Florida) and Hurricane Hugo (1989, 140 mph at landfall in South Carolina) are examples of Category Four hurricanes at landfall.

Category Five Hurricane:

Sustained winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Catastrophic damage is expected. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings will occur. Some complete building failures with small buildings blown over or away are likely. All signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes (built in any year). Severe and extensive window and door damage will occur. Nearly all windows in high rise buildings will be dislodged and become airborne. Severe injury or death is likely for persons struck by wind-blown debris. Nearly all trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Hurricane Camille (pdf) (1969, 190 mph at landfall in Mississippi) and Hurricane Andrew (1992, 165 mph at landfall in Southeast Florida) are examples of Category Five hurricanes at landfall.

In observance of the opening of Hurricane season, we’ll be examining each day this week various dynamics of hurricanes and hurricane season.  Today, lets appease our basic, visceral side and look at just how nasty a hurricane can get in terms of sheer force.

First, pop quiz.  Do you know what the strongest Atlantic Hurricane in the last 20 years is?  If you were given the options of  Katrina, Ike, Wilma, and Andrew, which would you choose?  It may surprise you to know that its actually Hurricane Wilma from 2005.  She didn’t make landfall as the strongest, but at sea Wilma recorded winds of 185 mph – the most intense hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic basin,  (sources suggest that Hurricane Camille of 1979 was even stronger, making landfall at 190 mph).  For reference, a Category 5 is classified on the Saffir-Simpson scale by winds over 155mp.  If a Category 6 existed, Wilma and Camille would be there.  They never bothered going higher than a 5, because according to Mr. Simpson: “If that extreme wind (156mph+) sustains itself for as much as six seconds on a building it’s going to cause rupturing damages that are serious no matter how well it’s engineered. So I think that it’s immaterial what will happen with winds stronger than 156 miles per hour.”

So how intense could a hurricane theoretically get?  Are there natural limits imposed on size and intensity?  LiveScience addresses this issue in an interesting article.  Apparently, the maximum sustainable winds, calculated by a super smart guy at MIT, is 190 mph.  If, however, the ocean were to continue to warm (oops…it actually appears to be cooling) then those limits could increase.  More on the destructive capabilities of hurricanes tomorrow.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially began June 1st.  Lets get an overview of what we could expect:

How Long is Hurricane Season?

Hurricane season begins June 1st and ends November 30th.  As the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) notes, however, “There is nothing magical in these dates, and hurricanes have occurred outside of these six months, but these dates were selected to encompass over 97% of tropical activity.”

Peaks and Troughs

June is historically among the quietest of months for hurricane activity.  In his most superlative blog, Dr. Jeff Master’s summarizes June’s hurricane history:

June is typically the quietest month of the Atlantic hurricane season. On average, we see only one named storm every two years in June. Only one major hurricane has made landfall in June–Category 4 Hurricane Audrey of 1957, which struck the Texas/Louisiana border area on June 27 of that year, killing 550. The highest number of named storms for the month is three, which occurred in 1936 and 1968. In the fourteen years since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, there have been eleven June named storms (if we include last year’s Tropical Storm Arthur, which really formed on May 31). Five tropical storms have formed in the first half of June in that 14-year period, giving a historical 36% chance of a first-half-of-June named storm.

The most active months occur between August and October, with early to mid-September being the absolute apex of activity.  According to AOML per above, August to October historically includes 78% of Tropical Storm days, 87% of minor Hurricane days, and 96% of major Hurricane days.  For example, in 2005, in the most active hurricane season on record, Hurricane Katrina struck land August 29th, Hurricane Rita made Texas/Lousiana landfall September 24th, and Hurricane Wilma struck Florida October 24th.

Forecast for 2009

According to prognosticators, the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season is expected to yield average storm activity.

From their website, NOAA’s National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center calls for a 50 percent probability of a near-normal season, a 25 percent probability of an above-normal season and a 25 percent probability of a below-normal season. Global weather patterns are imposing a greater uncertainty in the 2009 hurricane season outlook than in recent years. Forecasters say there is a 70 percent chance of having nine to 14 named storms, of which four to seven could become hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5).

According to Dr. William Gray’s annaul Extended Range Forecast – 12 Named Storms are predicted with 2 intense Hurricanes expected of the 12.  Dr. Gray’s estimates a 54% chance of a Category 3 or higher Hurricane making landfall on U.S. soil (52% is average for the last century).

Mitigating factors that could suppress activity include development of El Nino in the equatorial Eastern Pacific and possible cooling in the eastern tropical Atlantic.  Revised forecasts generally begin to surface around late July when El Nino conditions typically arise.

Impact on Adjusting

It is difficult to overstate the impact hurricanes have on the careers of independent adjusters.  Such sweeping and destructive occurences spike demand for adjusters exponentially, and can level the employment playing field for new adjusters with little or no prior experience.  Keep an eye on the Atlantic as we move through the summer.

While hurricane season won’t officially begin until Monday, June 1st, the first Tropical Depression of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season has already formed.

Located about 225 east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, “Tropical Depression One” doesn’t appear to threaten land although it does appear poised to become a named storm (Ana) by Friday.  Read more…

This could mark the 3rd year in a row where a named storm preceded the official start date of the Atlantic Hurricane season.  By comparison, in 2008 Tropical Storm Arthur formed May 31st and sub-Tropical Storm Andrea formed May 6th in 2007.

We’ll be covering the 2009 Hurricane Season outlook in greater detail on Monday.

Quick scheduling update here for summer Texas adjuster licensing courses.

We’ve added dates for our 3 day, TDI approved Texas adjuster prelicensing course in both Houston and Chicago.  These locations join Dallas and New Orleans on our regular schedule.  To view the our entire early summer schedule and register online, please visit our Texas Adjuster Licensing page.  The added dates are as follows:

Houston, June 26th-28th

Chicago, July 10th-12th

In the past 5 years, we have enjoyed over a 99% first-time pass percentage among our students.   Please keep in mind that successful completion of our 3 day course eliminates the state exam requirement.   Further, we will provide you with TDI’s application as well as detailed instructions on filing before you leave the classroom.  No further testing or coursework is required.  Applications are typically processed within 4 weeks by the Department of Insurance.

If you have any questions, please call (214) 606-8370, send us an email, or find the answer to most Tx prelicensing questions online.

Mastering Xactimate is one of the primary challenges confronting incoming field adjusters handling residential and light commercial claims.  Unfortunately, it is too often the case that when new adjusters fail in the field it is due to inadequacies in utilization of this program.  Robust and sophisticated, Xactimate is not immediately intuitive and is best retained through systematic guidance.  In partnership with Richard Beckner of LearnXactimate.com, AdjusterPro is pleased to bring you a much needed resource:

The Xactimate Training Manual

Xactimate Training E-Book: Reference Guide to Estimatics

Available in instantly downloadable format, this 405 pg. guide to Xactimate 25 will serve both new adjusters needing systematic guidance and existing adjusters in need of a comprehensive reference source while afield.  The convenient pdf file is extremely user-friendly, easy to navigate and is loaded with full color screen shots ordered in building block fashion.  For more information about topics covered, take a look at the Table of Contents.

This tool was designed to serve 2 types of adjusters:

1) Those just learning the program who, in addition to online or classroom training, need a supplemental source of instruction to stay sharp on existing skills while honing new ones.

2) Existing field adjusters in need of a good reference.  Spending time with the program’s tech support can be maddening, especially if you’re trying to close claims.  This manual covers nearly every possible functionality within Xactimate, including Sketch (interior rooms, roofs, etc).  This will save you time in the field and empower you to close claims faster and with less headache.  This is the type of reference tool that pays for itself very quickly.

Price: $199

Download Time: 2 to 3 minutes with standard internet connection

Requirements: Adobe Reader

Read more or, if you’re ready to get started, download now.

Tornadoes, hurricanes, and micro-bursts are all more or less familiar terms to us in the storm

Derecho in Nebraska

lexicon.  But would you believe that there is a terrifying behemoth of a storm – a storm that seems like the product of a child’s nightmare – that happened just recently?  Its called a derecho.

Derecho, taken from Spanish “straight”, refers to a highly powerful straight-line storm defined as follows:

…a widespread and long-lived, violent convectively induced straight-line windstorm

that is associated with a fast-moving band of severe thunderstorms in the form of a squall line usually taking the form of a bow echo.

Derechos although rare, have phenonemal destructive power.  These storms can carry sustained straight line winds of 130 mph, travel at 70 mph, and span 250 miles in width and 800 miles in depth.  A true uber-storm!  For more information, check out this neat video on recent derechos in the South or Wikipedia’s full entry of the matter.

Folks, its T-minus 34 days to the start of the 2009 Hurricane season and an opportune to reflect upon the final results of the 2008 season.  Claims Magazine online has published the 2008 Storm Season Year Review.  Of interest, the article cites Guy Carpenter as noting that “2008 was the fourth most severe hurricane season since reliable records have been available.“  Read the entire article.

We are occasionally asked about the feasibility of claims adjusting on a part time basis and I think it worth considering in more detail.

Understandably, many folks would like to supplement their existing income with another revenue stream.  Or, if looking to make a wholesale career change, initial part time supplementation of the existing job while that transition is made is also an attractive option.  Independent claims adjusting seems like it could be a natural fit given that you do work as an independent contractor (ability to make your own schedule, etc) and the seasonal nature of work volume might lend itself to doing other things.  So, is it really a good fit?

I would propose that it is not.  The type of claims handling where a few claims right next to home trickle in here or there over the course of month, providing that extra $2,000 in income, is actually pretty rare.  Moreover, arrangements of that type will be generally made only with tried and trusted adjusters with proven experience as opposed to someone just learning the ropes.

For those getting started in independent adjusting, opportunity generally knocks when a storm (cat) has wrought widespread and significant damage.  Demand for independent adjusters increases proportionate to the scale of damage and when the tipping point is reached, new folks on the outside looking in are suddenly thrust into deployment.  When assignment of claims occurs, its a 24/7 commitment.  Not only is the commitment level very high, the deployment itself will almost certainly send you beyond the geographic range of your home area – making it physically impossible to handle claims and your hometown job as well.

That said, once you have demonstrated your reliability as an adjuster and have earned the trust of an adjusting firm more opportunities will arise that could include daily claims in your home area.  Such an arrangement could even be “part-time” and certainly could admit of other work.  But, just out of the gates, working part time is not typical and probably ought not be expected.