We are now entering the middle of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season and its worth evaluating the prospects for the remainder of this year.  To date, there have been exactly zero named storms in the Atlantic.  That is fairly unusual.  In fact, as Jeff Masters points out in his Wunder Blog, “It has been 17 years since we went this long without a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic”.  In 1992, the first storm didn’t materialize until August 16th.  With no storms on the horizon, this year could easily extend beyond August 16th.  The question then is this:  does the beginning foreshadow the end?  If so, its going to be a quiet year for cat adjusters.  But lets take a look at the most recent projections.

On August 4th, Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University issued an update to their seasonal hurricane forecast.  Interestingly, despite the utter lack of current Atlantic tropical storm activity, Drs. Klotzbach and Gray are still calling for a near average hurricane season with 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.  Additionally, they call for a near-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. with a 27% chance of a big one hitting the east coast (31% average) and a 26% chance of one hitting the gulf coast (30% average).

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Risk Inc. of Britain issued an August 4th update to their previous June and July 2009 predictions that actually raises by 20% their forecast of Atlantic tropical storm activity.   Now, TSR is predicting a still near-average season, with 12.6 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, 2.8 intense hurricanes.  They forecast 3.8 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.6 of being categorized as hurricanes.

All this, of course, if extremely speculative but it is worth tucking away somewhere as we wait with anticipation for what the next few months will bring.