The Atlantic hurricane season officially began June 1st.  Lets get an overview of what we could expect:

How Long is Hurricane Season?

Hurricane season begins June 1st and ends November 30th.  As the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) notes, however, “There is nothing magical in these dates, and hurricanes have occurred outside of these six months, but these dates were selected to encompass over 97% of tropical activity.”

Peaks and Troughs

June is historically among the quietest of months for hurricane activity.  In his most superlative blog, Dr. Jeff Master’s summarizes June’s hurricane history:

June is typically the quietest month of the Atlantic hurricane season. On average, we see only one named storm every two years in June. Only one major hurricane has made landfall in June–Category 4 Hurricane Audrey of 1957, which struck the Texas/Louisiana border area on June 27 of that year, killing 550. The highest number of named storms for the month is three, which occurred in 1936 and 1968. In the fourteen years since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, there have been eleven June named storms (if we include last year’s Tropical Storm Arthur, which really formed on May 31). Five tropical storms have formed in the first half of June in that 14-year period, giving a historical 36% chance of a first-half-of-June named storm.

The most active months occur between August and October, with early to mid-September being the absolute apex of activity.  According to AOML per above, August to October historically includes 78% of Tropical Storm days, 87% of minor Hurricane days, and 96% of major Hurricane days.  For example, in 2005, in the most active hurricane season on record, Hurricane Katrina struck land August 29th, Hurricane Rita made Texas/Lousiana landfall September 24th, and Hurricane Wilma struck Florida October 24th.

Forecast for 2009

According to prognosticators, the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season is expected to yield average storm activity.

From their website, NOAA’s National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center calls for a 50 percent probability of a near-normal season, a 25 percent probability of an above-normal season and a 25 percent probability of a below-normal season. Global weather patterns are imposing a greater uncertainty in the 2009 hurricane season outlook than in recent years. Forecasters say there is a 70 percent chance of having nine to 14 named storms, of which four to seven could become hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5).

According to Dr. William Gray’s annaul Extended Range Forecast – 12 Named Storms are predicted with 2 intense Hurricanes expected of the 12.  Dr. Gray’s estimates a 54% chance of a Category 3 or higher Hurricane making landfall on U.S. soil (52% is average for the last century).

Mitigating factors that could suppress activity include development of El Nino in the equatorial Eastern Pacific and possible cooling in the eastern tropical Atlantic.  Revised forecasts generally begin to surface around late July when El Nino conditions typically arise.

Impact on Adjusting

It is difficult to overstate the impact hurricanes have on the careers of independent adjusters.  Such sweeping and destructive occurences spike demand for adjusters exponentially, and can level the employment playing field for new adjusters with little or no prior experience.  Keep an eye on the Atlantic as we move through the summer.